Cheaper EV Batteries

[00:00:21] Hello everyone and welcome to Kilowatt, a podcast about electric vehicles, renewable energy, autonomous driving, and much, much more. My name is Bodhi and I am your host. And on today's episode, we have a lot of news to cover. But before we get into that news, I do want to let you know that James from True North EVs, and he's also the president of the Manitoba Electric Vehicle Association, he put together a spreadsheet based on the U.S. Department of Energy's

[00:00:51] Alternative Fuels Data Center. That is a mouthful. And this spreadsheet is made up of all of the EVs that are available in Canada. And it looks like it gives you the EV and what it qualifies for as far as the Canadian federal incentives. So I'm going to throw that spreadsheet up into my Google Drive, and then I will share it in the show notes if you're interested in taking a picture.

[00:01:21] And thank you very much for James for putting this together and sharing it with us. And then you should also check out the True North EVs podcast as well as the Manitoba Electric Vehicle Association. And you can actually, if you're interested, you can go to ManitobaEV.ca. I'll put a link in the show notes because I'm having a hard time saying words today.

[00:01:47] But yeah, that is definitely something that you can check out. And James is a friend, so I highly encourage you to support what he and the ManitobaEV Association is doing.

[00:02:00] All right. Words are hard for dumb people like myself. Let's move on to our news. GM has decided to no longer fund their autonomous driving taxi service, Cruise. So what's going to happen with all the technology that Cruise had? Well, at this point in time, we don't know.

[00:02:23] I would have thought that they would just roll that into Super Cruise, and I think that's their plan. But I guess there's some legal things that they have to figure out before they can take that technology and roll that into their current vehicle software.

[00:02:35] But if I were to guess, they would figure out how to untangle this mess and roll that into their current Super Cruise autonomous driving package.

[00:02:44] And then my guess is in 10 or so years, they'll try to launch a different autonomous driving taxi service.

[00:02:51] They will not call it Cruise because Cruise is not – when people think of GM Cruise, they don't have warm, fuzzy thoughts.

[00:02:59] It's mostly frustration and dragging bicyclists across the intersection.

[00:03:05] So I think this is the right move by GM.

[00:03:09] It's just that particular brand has no love for it.

[00:03:14] So we'll see what happens.

[00:03:16] But I was listening to the Daily Tech News show yesterday, and they had happened to mention this.

[00:03:21] And one of the people thought maybe that GM might develop this technology and then license it out to other automotive manufacturers so they could operate their own robo-taxi type service or autonomous driving type service.

[00:03:35] And maybe, maybe, who knows?

[00:03:38] You can now buy a Hyundai vehicle on Amazon if you live in or around one of 48 U.S. cities.

[00:03:47] This is a pilot program that Amazon has at the moment.

[00:03:50] It's called the Amazon Autos Platform.

[00:03:52] What you do is you search for a car, and then those results end up looking a lot like your local dealer's website results.

[00:04:02] You know, when you go to a dealer and you search for a car the way that it's formatted, it looks just like it, weirdly enough.

[00:04:07] And then it also links to that local dealer.

[00:04:10] Weird coincidence there.

[00:04:12] Or maybe not.

[00:04:13] What it seems like Amazon's doing is they are taking a fee for hooking the dealer and the customer together and creating a sale.

[00:04:24] Amazon will take care of the trade-in.

[00:04:26] They'll arrange financing.

[00:04:27] You can sign e-sign paperwork.

[00:04:29] The whole thing is supposed to take about 30 minutes.

[00:04:33] And then after you've completed your purchase, you can choose how you want to receive your car.

[00:04:37] You can have it delivered or you can go pick it up at the dealership.

[00:04:41] The thing here is if you like negotiating your car price, there's no negotiating in this instance.

[00:04:48] The price is whatever it is, which is probably why it only takes 30 minutes.

[00:04:54] But you go on, you choose your car, you see what the price is out the door.

[00:04:58] You either say yes or no.

[00:05:00] And you can choose different powertrains.

[00:05:02] You have internal combustion engines, hybrids, and EVs.

[00:05:05] So that's good.

[00:05:06] It gives you some choice.

[00:05:08] And I should say that it's just Hyundai motor vehicles.

[00:05:15] It isn't the Hyundai group, right?

[00:05:18] Which includes Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis.

[00:05:20] You can only buy Hyundais at this time on the Amazon website.

[00:05:25] But I'm sure there'll be other automakers joining in soon.

[00:05:28] The Society of Automotive Engineers International is working on a standard for a universal plug and charge system.

[00:05:38] So what this means is that anyone would be able to pull up to any charger, or I guess any EV owner can pull up to any charging station.

[00:05:48] Doesn't matter where it is, what kind of car you have.

[00:05:50] If it's Electrify America, Tesla, it doesn't really matter.

[00:05:52] You plug your vehicle in, and all of the authentication and financial stuff just happens in the background.

[00:06:00] And then when you're done, you unplug, it charges you, and you go away.

[00:06:05] This is obviously what happens at the Tesla superchargers for Tesla owners and whoever else is approved to be on that system at the moment.

[00:06:12] But this would make it available to all chargers in North America.

[00:06:17] So hopefully they figure that out soon.

[00:06:20] Because now that the new JD3400 charging standard is out and official, I would imagine over the next five or so years,

[00:06:28] we're going to see a lot of charging networks converting over to the J3400, which is the Tesla connector.

[00:06:36] Switching over to that standard, and eventually the CCS connectors will be few and far between,

[00:06:43] which is not something that I necessarily want because I want people to drive their EVs into the ground

[00:06:50] and put several hundred thousand miles on them before they're shipped to the great unknown.

[00:06:55] I would much rather we get the most use as we can out of these vehicles.

[00:07:00] But yeah, these charging companies want to make the most amount of money as possible.

[00:07:05] So maybe there'll be one or two CCS chargers at each charging station.

[00:07:11] Speaking of charging stations, Costco and Electrify America have rolled out DC fast chargers

[00:07:17] at a select set of Costco locations in three different states in California, Colorado, and Florida.

[00:07:24] I think there's something like six or seven of these Costco warehouses where they did the rollout total.

[00:07:29] Costco, if you don't know, if you're not in the U.S., is a membership-based grocery store

[00:07:34] that allows you to buy grocery items in bulk or just buy, you know, get a really good deal on a couch

[00:07:40] or clothes or a shed.

[00:07:43] There's just lots of stuff there.

[00:07:44] But anyway, Costco is big here in North America.

[00:07:48] These chargers, though, are going to be open to all EV owners, not just Costco members.

[00:07:53] So if you're a Costco member, you can now enjoy your super cheap hot dog while charging your car.

[00:08:01] The Global EV Alliance did a study that surveyed 23,000 EV drivers across 18 different countries

[00:08:09] and found that 92% of those surveyed planned to buy another EV,

[00:08:15] and 1% said that they would go back to a gas car.

[00:08:20] So pretty impressive.

[00:08:21] 4% said that they would choose a plug-in hybrid.

[00:08:26] Of the respondents that wanted to keep an EV, the biggest factor in their decision was lower

[00:08:31] operating costs.

[00:08:33] And then the other factors included they're better for the environment,

[00:08:38] the drivability is nice, and lower maintenance costs.

[00:08:41] So yeah, 92% across 18 different countries planned to buy another EV.

[00:08:47] So that's pretty good.

[00:08:49] Bloomberg NEF released a new report showing that battery prices might be falling faster

[00:08:56] than previously expected.

[00:08:58] And there's even a possibility of us getting price parity between EV and ICE cars by 2026,

[00:09:06] which would be great.

[00:09:07] In 2024, battery prices fell 20% to $115 per kilowatt hour.

[00:09:15] And the reason for this is decreased material costs, as well as component costs, cell overproduction,

[00:09:22] and more affordable battery chemistries coming out like the lithium iron phosphate batteries.

[00:09:28] And then adding to the lower prices, China is expected to produce 92% of battery cell demand in 2024.

[00:09:40] There are still other companies outside of China producing battery cells as well,

[00:09:46] but China itself will produce 92% of the demand so that we have a overabundance.

[00:09:55] There's a word I'm looking for.

[00:09:56] I can't get it off the top of my head.

[00:09:58] But we have a lot of battery cells flooding the market right now.

[00:10:01] We have way more than we need, which is helping drive that price of the battery packs down,

[00:10:09] or the battery cells down per kilowatt hour.

[00:10:11] And then if you add into Chinese battery makers or Chinese battery makers like BYD and CATL and others,

[00:10:20] they're currently engaged in a battery price war that's also keeping prices down.

[00:10:26] Bloomberg actually thinks that we could get below $100 a kilowatt hour in 2026,

[00:10:31] and then somewhere between $69 and $85 a kilowatt hour by 2030.

[00:10:38] The reason why I give you a range is because I saw different numbers based on different sources,

[00:10:44] so I just gave you the range.

[00:10:46] Anyway, this is going to be good for EVs going forward, so love to see this.

[00:10:51] Speaking of BYD, BYD is set to launch their new next generation Blade batteries in 2025.

[00:10:59] The new battery will provide more range.

[00:11:02] It'll charge faster.

[00:11:03] And according to Car News China, BYD is aiming for a 15% cost reduction on the battery pack.

[00:11:11] So BYD sells their vehicles pretty cheap, so I'm sure that that is a welcome cost reduction.

[00:11:18] Cost reduction equals more profit.

[00:11:21] And then finally in our battery news, Stellantis has partnered with Zeta Energy,

[00:11:27] and they are promising lithium sulfur EV batteries by 2030.

[00:11:32] Lithium sulfur batteries are very energy dense.

[00:11:36] They cost less to manufacture than our current lithium ion batteries that we use now.

[00:11:41] They also don't require any cobalt, graphite, manganese, or nickel.

[00:11:47] And to add to the positive attributes of this battery chemistry,

[00:11:52] they can be manufactured in current battery manufacturing facilities.

[00:11:57] So not a lot of changes need to be made.

[00:11:59] So that's even better, right?

[00:12:00] We don't need to reinvent the wheel.

[00:12:03] Just change some processes.

[00:12:05] Some of the materials for this battery are sourced from waste materials and unrefined sulfur and methane,

[00:12:13] which honestly carries its own environmental impact.

[00:12:16] And I'm not entirely sure what that is, but when I find out, I'll let you know.

[00:12:20] But most, if not all, the materials used for this battery chemistry can be sourced in Europe and North America.

[00:12:28] The downside is how fast these battery packs or battery cells degrade,

[00:12:32] which is not what you want to hear when you're buying a $60,000 EV that your battery pack is going to degrade in X amount of years.

[00:12:39] I don't know what that number is.

[00:12:40] But Stellantis and Zeta say that they are working on a new lithium sulfur battery that will have the same energy density as today's batteries,

[00:12:51] charge 50% faster, and cost half the price of the current battery cost.

[00:12:58] So if they're able to figure out that degradation issue and make a long-lasting battery,

[00:13:05] I think we're in good shape with the sulfur batteries, as long as it's not super bad for the environment.

[00:13:12] Honestly, it seems like where they're sourcing this from,

[00:13:17] you know, the waste materials and the unrefined sulfur and the methane are already being used for something.

[00:13:24] So maybe the environmental impact doesn't change all that much because, you know,

[00:13:29] these are already byproducts of something.

[00:13:33] But yeah, I would like to see more information on that.

[00:13:37] All right, everybody, that is it for our EV news.

[00:13:40] I just want to let everybody know that we do have a Patreon.

[00:13:45] So if you would like to support the show, go to patreon.com forward slash kilowatt or support kilowatt.com.

[00:13:51] Or you can look in the show notes because we have a link to Acast Plus if you don't like Patreon.

[00:13:58] Like I am able to go to CES in Vegas next month because of our patrons.

[00:14:05] And I include our Acast folks in that group.

[00:14:08] You're still a patron, even though you don't use Patreon.

[00:14:13] Ad revenue as well as airline miles.

[00:14:16] That is how this trip is being funded.

[00:14:18] And in return, I get to tell you about all the cool stuff that I found at CES.

[00:14:23] So thank you to all of our patrons.

[00:14:25] Then again, that includes all of our Acast folks.

[00:14:28] And then thank you if you're not a patron and you listen to the ad feed

[00:14:33] because your ears are contributing to this trip as well.

[00:14:37] All right, let's move on to our Tesla news.

[00:14:40] Tesla has reduced prices at the supercharger network.

[00:14:44] There were already some reductions in price last week in Europe.

[00:14:48] And then this week we've seen some reductions in price about 10 cents a kilowatt hour.

[00:14:55] In some places, Fred Lambert, who lives in Canada, said his local supercharger went down

[00:15:02] from 50 cents a kilowatt hour to 42 cents a kilowatt hour.

[00:15:06] Here where I live in Arizona, it kind of depends.

[00:15:09] And I would imagine this is in more than just Arizona.

[00:15:12] But depending on what time you charge, you pay a different amount.

[00:15:15] So I haven't actually looked into it.

[00:15:18] But just know that you're going to pay a little bit less for your supercharger experience.

[00:15:25] All right, we have some interesting details on the CyberCab.

[00:15:29] According to a Tesla engineer, the CyberCab will be a two-seater.

[00:15:34] Pretty sure we already knew this part.

[00:15:36] It's a two-seater because 82% of miles driven are driven with less than two people

[00:15:43] or two or fewer people in the vehicle.

[00:15:45] So one to two people, 82% of the miles driven.

[00:15:48] So that's why they decided to go with the two-seater model.

[00:15:55] Another cool little factoid is the CyberCab has roughly half of the parts of the Model 3,

[00:16:02] which is obviously going to help lower costs.

[00:16:05] And then the engineer said that the trunk would be able to fit multiple golf bags.

[00:16:11] You could fit two carry-ons in there, two full-sized carry-ons in there,

[00:16:15] or two full-sized checked bags in the trunk.

[00:16:19] And depending on the size of your bicycle, you might be able to fit your bicycle back there

[00:16:23] or a foldable wheelchair.

[00:16:25] So it seems like there's quite a bit of room back there if you need it.

[00:16:32] Okie doke, we've got two more stories here.

[00:16:35] According to a report from Deutsche Bank, Tesla is launching a sub-$30,000 EV in the first half of 2025.

[00:16:45] This is a $30,000 EV, sub-$30,000 EV that we have not heard about to this point.

[00:16:53] Deutsche Bank claims that they saw an investor report from Tesla about their 2025 plans.

[00:17:00] And they also claim that they spoke with Tesla's head of investor relations, Travis Axelrod,

[00:17:06] and he confirmed the sub-$30,000 EV.

[00:17:11] Now, Deutsche Bank is calling this the Model Q.

[00:17:13] That is not an official name.

[00:17:14] We don't even know if that's an internal name.

[00:17:17] So I'm not going to call it the Model Q.

[00:17:19] We'll just call it the sub-$30,000 EV.

[00:17:22] According to the report, this vehicle will be built on existing product lines.

[00:17:27] It'll be 30% lighter and 15% smaller than a Model 3.

[00:17:32] It'll come equipped with a 53 or 75 kilowatt hour LFP battery pack.

[00:17:37] And I would like to go back to the sub-$30,000 EV part of this.

[00:17:43] They are saying that it'll be sub-$30,000 after the federal tax credits here in the United States.

[00:17:51] So that would mean that this vehicle costs $37,499 at most, which is not super cheap.

[00:18:01] When you see the articles of a sub-$30,000 Tesla, you think of the $25,000 Tesla that Elon and the team announced, I think, last year.

[00:18:13] That's not going to be the case in this instance.

[00:18:15] It'll be real costs around $37,000.

[00:18:20] Now, just for a point of reference here in the United States, I looked this morning.

[00:18:23] Model 3 starts at $42,490 and the Model Y starts at $44,990.

[00:18:31] So yeah, this is an interesting story.

[00:18:38] This is also a car that has not yet been announced.

[00:18:41] So I would just like to say I don't think that Tesla would want somebody else to announce their product for them.

[00:18:53] So I don't know why Tesla would talk to Deutsche Bank, who probably talks to a lot of Fortune 500 companies and does not release this kind of information.

[00:19:07] So I don't know what the benefit of Deutsche Bank releasing this information because Tesla would like to announce their own vehicles, I'm sure.

[00:19:20] And for Tesla to come up with a brand new model and announce it and release it in the first half of 2025, not completely unfathomable.

[00:19:29] It's unfathomable, right?

[00:19:30] It's possible, but it's just not how they've done things in the past.

[00:19:34] So I'm a little skeptical of this report, to be honest.

[00:19:39] I would love if it was true, but I am skeptical.

[00:19:43] And we're going to get into the second part of this, which is another story.

[00:19:48] But in a little over a month, Donald Trump is set to take office here in the United States as the president.

[00:19:55] And he has said that he would like to get rid of that $7,500 tax credit.

[00:20:00] Now, Elon's been a big supporter of Donald Trump, giving away hundreds of million dollars to his campaign and other people's campaign as well.

[00:20:08] But Elon 10 looks like, sounds like Elon supports this effort.

[00:20:14] He actually went so far to say that it would hurt Tesla in the short term, but in the long term, it would end up helping Tesla.

[00:20:21] Now, let's fast forward a little bit here and talk about California Governor Gavin Newsom,

[00:20:28] who proposed a $7,500 California state rebate if the federal tax credit goes away.

[00:20:37] Not in addition to, but if the federal tax credit goes away to help Californians be able to afford EVs.

[00:20:45] Okay, I get that.

[00:20:46] That's cool.

[00:20:48] But if California does implement this $7,500 tax credit, it would exclude Tesla from being able to be eligible.

[00:20:57] So if you are a consumer in California and you want to buy a car, you go buy a Ford Mach-E, great, you get the $7,500.

[00:21:06] If you buy the Model Y, you do not get the $7,500.

[00:21:09] And Newsom's reasoning for this is that it will boost competition from other automakers and create better market conditions for those automakers.

[00:21:22] I'm not sure if Gavin Newsom knows this or not, but Tesla is a very large employer in California and Elon can be pretty petty.

[00:21:32] As a matter of fact, Elon wasn't happy about this.

[00:21:35] He actually tweeted or posted on X, Tesla is the only one making cars in California.

[00:21:42] So this move hurts jobs in California.

[00:21:46] And, you know, more or less, I agree with that.

[00:21:49] Listen, I don't like the idea of governments being able to pick winners and losers in the market, right?

[00:21:56] They should not be able to back one particular company over any other particular company because that one particular company may have given them money, whereas the other company gave the other side money.

[00:22:12] Do you see what I'm saying here?

[00:22:13] I don't like this.

[00:22:15] This is gross.

[00:22:15] I know it happens and a lot of things that happen in the shadows in U.S. politics lately have been happening in public.

[00:22:27] And I'm not a fan of that.

[00:22:28] And if you think I'm talking about one side, you're wrong.

[00:22:30] I'm talking about both sides that I do not like.

[00:22:33] If I can get political over just a second, I don't think a two-party system here in the United States helps us in any way, shape or form.

[00:22:42] I think it's set to divide us.

[00:22:44] So I'm not a fan of either of these two parties that we have here in the United States.

[00:22:49] I think they're serving their own interests, and I think this might be an example of them serving their own interests.

[00:22:56] I'm not a fan of this.

[00:22:57] I don't like it.

[00:23:00] I think it's gross.

[00:23:01] I think what they're doing to Tesla in this instance is gross.

[00:23:04] And as you know, I don't always defend Tesla.

[00:23:08] I don't always defend Elon.

[00:23:09] I think a lot of things that Elon does is gross as well.

[00:23:13] But yeah, if the state of California wants to create the $7,500 tax credit and they want to say,

[00:23:20] if you make over $100,000 a year individually or $200,000 a year as a couple, you don't qualify.

[00:23:27] Or there's a price cap on the vehicle or some combination of that and something else.

[00:23:32] I think that's great.

[00:23:33] That's reasonable.

[00:23:33] If you make $2 million a year and you live in California, maybe you don't need to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit.

[00:23:42] But if you make $75,000 a year and you want to buy a Chevy Equinox EV, the $35,000 model,

[00:23:50] and you want a little help with that and the state is providing that money, that's great.

[00:23:54] I just don't think excluding companies in this instance is a great way to go.

[00:24:00] So that is my two cents.

[00:24:03] And by the way, I have those same thoughts about excluding Chinese automakers from the EV market here in the United States.

[00:24:11] I don't think that that's fair either because there are people who can't afford to buy a current EV that would be able to afford a Chinese EV.

[00:24:19] I think that puts pressure on American automakers or automakers who currently sell vehicles here in the United States to make more affordable EVs,

[00:24:29] even though there's not as much margin in there.

[00:24:31] So I believe that's why EV makers aren't making a $20,000 EV here in the United States because there's no money in it.

[00:24:40] And I get it.

[00:24:43] But let somebody else come in that's going to take over that segment or compete at that price.

[00:24:48] I totally get why you wouldn't want to if you're only making 10% per car or whatever that margin ends up being.

[00:24:55] I totally understand.

[00:24:56] Why would you want to do that?

[00:24:57] On the other side, don't gatekeep because somebody might be able to purchase a new BYD Dolphin and be in good shape.

[00:25:08] Anyway, that's neither here nor there.

[00:25:10] Let's go ahead and end the podcast.

[00:25:12] I hope everybody enjoyed this episode.

[00:25:16] If you want to email me because you disagree with my views,

[00:25:19] bodie, B-O-D-I-E at 918digital.com.

[00:25:23] You can also find me on X at 918digital.

[00:25:26] And yeah, I hope everybody had a good week.

[00:25:31] Again, my weeks have been busy with lots of projects.

[00:25:36] And as soon as I get done recording this, I've got two more projects to finish before five.

[00:25:40] And then I'm recording another podcast at five.

[00:25:42] So lots of stuff going on over here at 918digital.

[00:25:47] I hope you all have a wonderful week.

[00:25:49] And I will talk to you on Friday.

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